Retail sales growth in the UK slowed to its weakest pace since May as shoppers held off spending ahead of Black Friday and an expected autumn budget. Figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and KPMG show sales rose 1.6% in October, down from 2.3% in September.
Food sales posted the largest slowdown, easing by 0.8 percentage points to 3.5% as confidence dipped, inflation eased and consumers began saving for the festive season. Non-food sales were almost flat year on year at 0.1%, with falls in footwear, stationery and appliances, partly reflecting milder weather and shoppers waiting for Black Friday deals on 28 November.
Barclays’ data indicated around a third of consumers delayed major purchases last month to wait until after the budget, and two in five adjusted their finances in response. It was the first time since August 2022 that all seven measures of consumer and economic confidence tracked by the bank had fallen. Confidence in household finances dropped from 74% to 63%. Confidence in job security and the ability to spend on non-essential items fell to 44% and 51% respectively, their lowest levels since 2023.
Barclays also reported that spending on its credit and debit cards fell 0.8% in October, similar to September’s 0.7% decline, with notable decreases at supermarkets, department stores and discounters, and steep falls in electronics, fuel and motoring.
Retailers, including Argos and Sainsbury’s chief executive Simon Roberts, have warned that the timing of the chancellor’s tax and spending announcements — expected a few days before Black Friday — could further dent fragile consumer confidence at a crucial moment for sales.
Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, said: “Retailers are counting on Black Friday to deliver a vital boost, but looming budget decisions risk undermining fragile consumer confidence.” She described October as “a subdued month, with the weakest growth since May,” noting many consumers delayed purchases while furniture and other homeware did better as people prepared their homes for family gatherings. Dickinson added that recent food sales growth was “mostly driven by higher prices rather than higher volumes.”
Sarah Bradbury, chief executive of the grocery body IGD, said shoppers were prioritising saving over quality for the first time this year. “The news of potential tax rises will concern many shoppers, even as food price inflation eased somewhat,” she said, adding that a stalling jobs market and a narrowing gap between pay growth and price rises left consumers feeling little benefit. Looking ahead, she predicted shoppers would remain cautious in the short term to ensure they can afford to treat themselves at Christmas.
