The UK response to Covid was “too little, too late” and led to thousands more deaths in the first wave, an independent inquiry has concluded. The report found that earlier voluntary measures — social distancing, isolating symptomatic people and household members — introduced before 16 March 2020 might have avoided a full lockdown. By the time ministers imposed restrictions, it was too late; a week-long delay introducing lockdown on 23 March 2020 is estimated to have caused about 23,000 additional deaths in England during the first wave.
Inquiry chair Baroness Hallett said governments across all four nations failed to appreciate the scale of the threat and the urgency of the response required in early 2020. She said ministers relied in part on “misleading assurances” that the UK was prepared. Government scientists underestimated the speed of spread and advised against early restrictions, at times recommending delay to allow natural infection to build immunity.
The nearly 800-page report — the second of 10 planned by the inquiry — identified multiple failings:
– Repeating early mistakes: it called it “inexcusable” that errors seen in spring 2020 were repeated in the autumn as a second wave built, and that indecision by then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson delayed a November lockdown until control was lost.
– Rule-breaking by political figures, including Dominic Cummings’ trips in March 2020, undermined public confidence and compliance.
– A “toxic and chaotic” culture at the centre of government affected the quality of advice and decisions.
– Poor planning and decision-making across all four nations, hampered by a lack of trust between the prime minister and devolved leaders.
– The Eat Out to Help Out scheme, proposed by Chancellor Rishi Sunak and agreed by Johnson to support hospitality in August 2020, was implemented without scientific advice and undermined public-health messaging.
– The needs of vulnerable groups — older people, disabled people and some ethnic minorities — were not adequately considered, despite foreseeable harm.
– The consequences of school closures and the impact on children were not sufficiently prioritised.
The report acknowledged that while lockdowns saved lives, they left lasting societal scars: disrupted childhoods, delayed non-Covid healthcare and widened inequalities. Modelling produced in 2021 suggested 23,000 deaths could have been avoided by a one-week earlier lockdown, representing about a 48% reduction in first-wave deaths to 1 July 2020. The report did not assert that overall pandemic deaths — 227,000 in the UK by the time the pandemic was declared over in 2023 — would necessarily have been lower, noting many later factors would affect totals.
Praise was given for the “remarkable” vaccine rollout and the cautious exit from the early-2021 lockdown that prioritised giving jabs to the vulnerable; the report described this period as a turning point.
Recommendations included:
– Better assessment of how decisions affect those most at risk from illness and from the response measures;
– Broader and more representative scientific advice, including devolved-government input, and additional groups to cover economic and social impacts;
– Reformed emergency decision-making structures within each nation;
– Improved communication between the four nations during emergencies.
Reactions: Deborah Doyle of Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice called it “devastating” to think of lives that could have been saved and blamed leadership failures. Dominic Cummings, former chief adviser to Boris Johnson, accused the inquiry of “cover-ups and rewriting history,” saying he was offered but declined to comment and that experts had recommended minimal action early on. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the government would “carefully consider” the findings and acknowledged ongoing pressure on local government and public services and the lasting public-cost of the pandemic. Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey demanded an apology from Conservative figures, calling the possibility that lockdowns might have been avoided “shattering.”
