Countries in Africa, where farmers rely heavily on imported fertiliser and many households spend a large share of income on food, are particularly exposed to supply chain disruptions from the war in the Middle East, experts say.
The conflict has severely disrupted traffic through the strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane not only for oil and gas but also for fertiliser produced in large quantities in the Gulf. A UNCTAD report notes that 54% of Sudan’s fertiliser is shipped that way; Somalia and Kenya receive 30% and 26% respectively. Around one-third of seaborne fertiliser trade passes through the strait.
Much of the world’s fertiliser is made in the Gulf, which benefits from cheap fossil gas needed for nitrogen-based fertilisers such as urea, and abundant sulphur used in phosphate fertiliser production. Fertiliser prices have risen sharply since the war began last month; UNCTAD warns this could push up food costs and deepen cost-of-living pressures, especially for the most vulnerable. Rising oil and gas prices will have a similar effect.
African economies are highly vulnerable and face amplified uncertainty during major shocks, UNCTAD says, citing dependence on foreign markets, volatile commodity exports, high debt and weak infrastructure. Governments already under budgetary strain are therefore especially at risk from supply chain disruptions.
“Any disruptions, any shocks really affect all of us,” said Jervin Naidoo, a political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa. XN Iraki, a professor of business and economics at the University of Nairobi, said higher oil prices would be felt “acutely” in Africa because many people work in the informal sector with “uncertain income.” Rama Yade, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center, said on X that rising oil prices posed “serious economic challenges” for many governments, which might increase subsidies or pass costs to consumers “which could trigger social and political pressure.”
African governments are preparing for potential shocks. Kenya’s energy minister, Opiyo Wandayi, said the country had scheduled petroleum imports through the end of April and would “continue taking necessary actions to ensure there is uninterrupted supply.” In Tanzania, President Samia Suluhu Hassan ordered the energy ministry to bolster strategic fuel reserves. Ethiopia has introduced a special fuel subsidy to cushion people from surging global oil prices, while Zambia has warned fuel retailers against hoarding.
Naidoo cautioned that while some countries have measures such as subsidies to soften high oil prices, these may not suffice long term. The continent experienced similar shocks in 2022 when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted supply chains.
Higher crude prices could, conversely, boost revenues for African oil exporters like Nigeria, Algeria and Angola, as some buyers turn to them. On the supply side, the war is also disrupting African exports to the Middle East or via the region by air and sea; Kenya’s agriculture minister, Mutahi Kagwe, said the conflict had disrupted exports of meat, tea and other food products to the Middle East.
