China’s carbon dioxide emissions have been flat or falling for 18 months, an analysis shows, strengthening the case that the world’s largest emitter may have peaked its CO2 emissions earlier than planned.
A rapid rollout of solar and wind capacity — solar generation up 46% and wind up 11% in the third quarter — helped keep energy-sector emissions flat despite rising electricity demand. China added 240 GW of solar and 61 GW of wind capacity in the first nine months of the year, putting it on course for another record year for renewables in 2025. Last year the country installed 333 GW of solar, more than the rest of the world combined.
The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea), in analysis for Carbon Brief, found China’s CO2 emissions were unchanged year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, helped by declines in travel, cement and steel emissions.
The findings come as world leaders meet in Brazil for COP30 amid mounting urgency over the climate crisis. China’s president, Xi Jinping, did not attend the leaders’ summit at the UN climate conference; China’s delegation is present. The US president, Donald Trump, also did not attend and did not send a negotiation team. UN secretary-general António Guterres warned last week that failing to limit warming to 1.5°C would be “a moral failure and deadly negligence.”
André Corrêa do Lago, the Brazilian diplomat presiding over COP30, praised Chinese progress on green technologies, saying: “China is coming up with solutions that are for everyone, not just China,” and noting that solar panels are now competitively cheap compared with fossil fuels.
Lauri Myllyvirta, Crea’s lead analyst, cautioned that China’s overall 2025 emissions could still register a small rise depending on fourth-quarter activity. If 2025 follows past patterns — with electricity demand and associated emissions peaking in summer — the year could record a decline in CO2 emissions.
China’s official climate goals remain peak emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. In September the country set new targets to cut overall greenhouse gas emissions by 7–10% of their peak by 2035; experts have said these targets are too modest and fall far short of the roughly 30% reduction they consider feasible and necessary. Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, has argued the new targets should be regarded as a baseline rather than a ceiling.
Some sectors are not following the decarbonisation trend. Oil demand and transport emissions fell by 5% in the third quarter, but emissions rose by about 10% in other areas as production of plastics and chemicals surged. China is also on course to miss its 2020–2025 carbon-intensity target, meaning larger cuts will be needed to meet the 2030 goal of reducing CO2 per unit of GDP by 65% compared with 2005.
Attention now turns to China’s 15th five-year plan for 2026–2030. The full text will be published next year, but officials have signaled that low-carbon energy systems will be a central focus.
