Allies of the prime minister say he would resist any challenge to his leadership from Labour MPs. Some loyalists fear his job could be immediately under threat, possibly soon after the Budget in a fortnight’s time, and warn Downing Street is “in full bunker mode” — a stance critics say “won’t help the government out of the hole we’re in.”
Friends of the prime minister are alarmed by what they see as plotting to replace him and are stressing the risks of a leadership contest. Names discussed by Labour MPs as potential challengers include close cabinet colleagues Wes Streeting, the health secretary, and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, with speculation also around Ed Miliband and backbenchers such as former transport secretary Louise Haigh.
“He will fight this,” one minister said, referencing a 2021 by-election loss that once prompted the prime minister to consider resigning. “This is not a Hartlepool moment,” they added. “He is one of only two people alive who have won a general election for Labour. It’d be madness to run against him after 17 months.”
Many in Labour expect a crunch after next May’s devolved elections in Scotland and Wales and local elections in England, when the party is widely forecast to do poorly. But some MPs argue they cannot wait until then. “It’s all very well to say wait for the locals, but that’s my activist base I’m sending into the gunfire. I can’t lose all my councillors,” one senior Labour MP said. Another source warned: “The list of reasons for people to move after the Budget are growing by the day. If Wes is brave and moves he may well be rewarded by being prime minister by Christmas.”
Streeting’s ambitions are viewed with suspicion by some close to the prime minister. A spokesman for Streeting told the BBC “these claims are categorically untrue” and said his focus has been on cutting waiting lists, recruiting more GPs, and rebuilding the NHS. The health secretary is due to give interviews on his NHS plans.
A government source accused Downing Street of “turning on their most loyal cabinet members for absolutely no reason,” adding: “Unfortunately there is a pattern of Keir’s team briefing against his own people – they did it to Angela, Lisa, Lucy, now it’s Wes’s turn.” Another source said: “A circular firing squad won’t help the government out of the hole we’re in,” referring to Angela Rayner, Lucy Powell and Lisa Nandy.
Supporters of the prime minister warn colleagues to be cautious: a leadership contest could plunge Labour into chaos reminiscent of the Conservatives’ final years in office, install a leader without a national mandate, unsettle international markets and jeopardise relationships with allies such as President Trump. Yet some ministers worry the government is in a desperate position. “It’s terrible. He [Starmer] is hated out there. It is worse than it got under Corbyn. I don’t see how this is sustainable until May,” one minister said.
Opinion polls suggest Sir Keir is deeply unpopular and that Labour’s support has been as low as around a fifth of the electorate in recent months. A supportive cabinet minister described colleagues’ calculations: “There are those who see it as a choice between this Labour government and perfection. The closer they can nudge us towards the policies they see as perfect, the happier they are. But the choice isn’t between us and perfection, it’s between us and Reform.”
The rise of Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage has focused minds in Downing Street. The prime minister views the battle with Reform as generation-defining and believes he can defeat Farage, but an increasing number of colleagues are unconvinced. “We are not like the Tories. We’re not going to change leader more than once in a parliament,” a Labour MP first elected last year said.
