Nick Triggle
Health correspondent
The number of people in hospital in England with influenza has risen by more than 50% in the past week, and NHS leaders say there is no sign the “super-flu” wave has peaked.
In the week to Sunday there was an average of about 2,660 flu patients a day in hospital, NHS England said, and numbers continued to rise this week. The health service described this as the equivalent of three full hospitals of flu patients, with some trusts reporting nearly one in 10 beds occupied by someone with the virus. Officials warned caseloads could top 5,000 by the weekend.
Rises are being seen across the UK. Scotland recorded almost a 25% increase in confirmed cases in the last week and a 15% rise in flu admissions. Wales and Northern Ireland are reporting similar increases, with children and young people particularly affected. Some schools have reintroduced Covid-style measures; a Caerphilly site temporarily closed and some Aberdeenshire schools shortened hours. In England, children aged five to 14 have the highest positivity rates, but hospital admission rates are highest among those over 75 and children under five.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting warned the NHS faces an extraordinary challenge this winter, saying admissions “could triple by the peak of the pressures” and that the timing of any peak is unknown. NHS England’s medical director, Professor Meghana Pandit, said the unprecedented wave was pushing staff to the limit.
Current hospital flu levels are the highest for this time of year since records began in 2021, though those records do not cover earlier severe seasons such as 2014–15 and 2017–18. This season’s rise began about a month earlier than normal and is being driven by a genetically changed H3N2 strain. Because the public is less likely to have encountered this exact version before, population immunity may be reduced.
NHS England also reported rising norovirus infections, with more than 350 beds occupied by people with that stomach bug.
The surge comes as resident doctors (junior doctors) planned a five-day strike next week. The British Medical Association has agreed to poll members after a fresh offer from the health secretary; results are due Monday. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer urged the BMA to accept the offer and halt strike action, particularly with heightened flu pressures ahead of Christmas. Daniel Elkeles of NHS Providers appealed for doctors to step back from the strike to help hospitals cope.
UK Health Security Agency data, which includes community infection levels as well as hospital cases, shows infections continuing to rise but with a smaller increase than the previous week. Officials cautioned that it is too soon to assume the wave is peaking, noting flu can be unpredictable with possible lulls followed by further surges.
Public health experts urged people eligible for a free NHS flu vaccine to come forward. The free jab is available to those aged 65 and over, pregnant women and people with certain health conditions, among others. Dr Conall Watson of the UKHSA said there is still vaccine available but that it takes up to two weeks after vaccination to reach full effect, so time to be protected before Christmas is limited.
Dr Vicky Price, president of the Society for Acute Medicine, warned that winter viruses are adding intense pressure to an “already buckling system.” She said long waits in A&E are increasing as staff cope with overflowing departments and accused the system’s failures of being driven by long-term workforce shortages. She described the current situation not as an isolated emergency but as the culmination of systemic capacity problems.
