The US is considering a much broader set of sanctions on the belligerents in Sudan’s war, acknowledging that US envoy Massad Boulos has so far been unable to secure a ceasefire between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
President Donald Trump announced last week that work had begun to end the conflict after a direct request from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Boulos — who is the father-in-law of Trump’s daughter Tiffany — has been trying for months to persuade both sides to agree to a truce, with little success.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio told a White House cabinet meeting that Trump was “the only leader in the world capable of resolving the Sudan crisis.” An Arab diplomat said Trump’s involvement “injects momentum into peace processes,” adding that what others do with that momentum matters. Warring parties have been warned it is highly likely Trump will deploy a far broader range of punitive measures against groups seen as blocking a ceasefire.
Norway’s foreign ministry is preparing to invite a broad range of Sudanese civic actors to Oslo to map how a civilian government could be restored if the conflict ends. The UN estimates the war has killed about 40,000 people, though some rights groups say the toll is higher, and more than 14 million people have been displaced, creating one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
Regional alignments have shaped the fight: Saudi Arabia and Egypt have broadly supported the army, while the RSF has received backing from the United Arab Emirates. US leverage may depend on privately persuading the UAE that its position is counterproductive; it may also require Saudi concessions on preserving Sudan’s existing institutions, a diplomatic shorthand for protecting the army’s role.
The UN human rights chief warned that since 25 October, when the RSF captured Bara in North Kordofan, at least 269 civilians have been killed by aerial strikes, artillery and summary executions. In response to the Saudi crown prince’s intervention, the US is likely to broaden sanctions and press to enforce and extend the UN arms embargo on Darfur. To date, US measures have mainly targeted RSF and army leaders, a small group of Islamists linked to the army, and some UAE-based firms.
On 21 September the so-called quad — the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt — proposed a three-month humanitarian truce followed by a nine-month political process aimed at returning the country to civilian rule. The RSF feigned acceptance but kept fighting; the army rejected the roadmap as biased, accusing the quad of advocating the disbandment of the army, which infuriated Boulos.
Norway’s deputy foreign minister, Andreas Motzfeldt Kravik, recently met the army leadership in Port Sudan and warned that without a ceasefire Sudan would fragment with serious regional consequences. Norway hopes to convene civilian representatives in Oslo in the coming weeks to discuss preparations for a civilian government.
Trump’s threat to designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a foreign terrorist organisation — backed by the House foreign relations committee — could weaken the army, which is often accused of links to the movement. US focus has also been sharpened by reports the army might offer an extended port lease to Russia and by allegations it denied UN investigators access over claims of chemical-weapons use.
The UAE argues that countering Islamist political influence is central to Western policy in the region. At Chatham House, UAE minister of state Lana Nusseibeh said neither warring party should be politically rehabilitated, calling both the RSF and the army complicit in grave violations and unfit to shape Sudan’s future.
UN human rights chief Volker Türk warned of a potential new wave of atrocities amid escalating fighting in Kordofan and urged all states with influence to act immediately to halt the violence and the arms flows fuelling it.
