Infrastructure Victoria is urging the state government to boost public transport across Melbourne’s north and west, extend eight tram routes and introduce six new express bus services within five years as part of a long-term plan to cope with population growth and climate risks.
The independent agency’s 30-year strategy, released with 45 final recommendations, also calls for cheaper off-peak fares and joint work with the federal government on a road user charge after a state levy on electric vehicles was struck down by the High Court. The changes are framed as measures to protect buildings, roads and power lines from climate impacts and to manage a forecast population rise from about 6.9 million in 2024 to roughly 11 million over three decades.
Victoria has a target of 800,000 new homes by 2034, with 70% expected in established suburbs. The plan is designed to make the most of the Metro Tunnel, due to start carrying passengers in December, and to get more value from existing infrastructure rather than simply building new assets.
Infrastructure Victoria projects about $65 billion of public spending over 30 years focused on smarter use of current networks. Some measures previously proposed in a draft — such as 30 km/h limits in child-heavy areas and separated bike corridors in Melbourne, Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo and Wangaratta — remain. After consultation the final plan adds steps to boost train capacity in the city’s north.
Modelling shows many residents of inner-northern suburbs such as Coburg and Brunswick risk being pushed back into cars unless services improve: peak wait times there can reach 20 minutes, several times longer than suburbs at a similar distance in the south-east. Trams along Sydney Road are up to 27% slower than the network average because they run in mixed traffic and are expected to slow further by 2041.
To unlock capacity, Infrastructure Victoria recommends upgrades to City Loop power and signalling that will be freed up by the Metro Tunnel, plus an extra track on the Upfield line—changes that could raise frequencies from four to as many as nine trains per hour. The agency modelled tram extensions that would leverage Metro Tunnel capacity, proposing expansion of eight routes over five years at a cost of up to $5.7 billion to stimulate housing around new stops.
Specific tram proposals include linking routes 11 and 67 to Fishermans Bend, where planning anticipates 80,000 residents by 2050, and extending route 3 to Hughesdale via Chadstone — projects previously promised but not yet delivered.
The review highlights Melbourne’s rapidly growing west as poorly served by public transport: 63% of western residents drive to work compared with 32% in inner Melbourne. Recommendations for the west include extending Metro services to Melton, adding tracks between Sunshine and Caroline Springs, and building new stations at Thornhill Park, Mount Atkinson and Altona North.
Where rail is not feasible, the plan proposes six bus rapid transit (BRT) corridors with larger buses, dedicated lanes and platform-style stops similar to systems in Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide. It also recommends expanded regional bus and coach services, noting modelling that high-quality coach routes are likely more viable than new rail for some smaller regional cities.
The report backs lower off-peak fares, citing research that bus patronage can rise by up to 19% for every $1 reduction in fares. The 45 recommendations span transport, health, housing, energy, water, social infrastructure and the environment, and the plan also lists eight further changes likely to be needed over 30 years that do not require immediate action.
The report will be tabled in parliament this week and the government has up to a year to formally respond.
