New analysis suggests weight-loss injections such as Wegovy (semaglutide) could be manufactured for about $3 a month in injectable form, potentially widening access in lower-income countries as patents expire.
More than a billion people worldwide live with obesity, with rates rising rapidly in low- and middle-income countries as diets westernise and lifestyles become more sedentary. The World Health Organization added semaglutide—sold as Wegovy for obesity and Ozempic for diabetes—to its essential medicines list in September, but global health leaders warned that high prices restrict access.
The new preprint study estimates a monthly injectable semaglutide dose could be produced for roughly $3 (about £2.35). Newer oral formulations could be made for around $16 a month. Dr Andrew Hill of the University of Liverpool, a study author, said: “These low prices open the door to worldwide access to an essential medicine.”
The researchers found core semaglutide patents are due to expire this year in 10 countries—including Brazil, China, India, South Africa, Turkey, Mexico and Canada from 21 March—potentially enabling generic competition. They also identified about 150 countries where patents were never filed, mainly across Africa. Those roughly 160 countries account for 69% of people with type 2 diabetes and 84% of people living with obesity.
Prof François Venter of the University of the Witwatersrand, another author, noted the precedent of HIV, TB, malaria and hepatitis treatments being made available in low- and middle-income countries at prices near production cost, saving millions of lives while allowing generic manufacturers sustainable profits. “We can repeat this medical success story for semaglutide,” he said.
The authors cautioned that cheaper drugs alone will not tackle the structural drivers of obesity—food insecurity, poverty, urbanisation and commercial food environments—and that coordinated policies and procurement planning will be necessary to realise benefits.
Dr Nomathemba Chandiwana, chief scientific officer at South Africa’s Desmond Tutu Health Foundation and an obesity specialist not involved in the study, said lower prices could be significant for South Africa and many African and other low- and middle-income countries where cost has been a major access barrier. She noted analyses suggesting about 27% of adults worldwide meet criteria for drugs like semaglutide, with most of those people living in LMICs where access is limited. Chandiwana added that integrating these medicines responsibly into broader obesity and diabetes care will be a key challenge.
Obesity is linked to heart disease, diabetes, stroke and some cancers; the WHO attributes 3.7 million deaths each year to excess weight. Diabetes prevalence has also risen sharply, from about 200 million in 1990 to 830 million in 2022, with the steepest increases in low- and middle-income countries.
Semaglutide was first approved in 2017. It currently costs roughly $200 a month in the US and about £120 a month in the UK; patents in Britain, continental Europe and the US are not due to expire for another five years. The study’s cost estimates are based on 2024–25 shipment records for key ingredients and use a methodology previously applied to predict generic prices for HIV, hepatitis C and some cancer medicines.
The findings echo a 2024 Médecins Sans Frontières analysis that also concluded diabetes drugs, including semaglutide, could be produced and sold much more cheaply.
