South Sudan is experiencing a sharp rise in fighting between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and opposition fighters linked to arrested vice-president Riek Machar, raising fears the country could slide back into full-scale civil war.
In a devastating attack near the Sudan border, armed youth from Mayom county raided a village in Abiemnom county, killing at least 169 people, including women, children and members of government security forces, Ruweng information minister James Monyluak Majok said. The UN mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) said it was sheltering more than 1,000 civilians at its base and providing medical care; about 23 people were reported wounded.
Local officials have accused attackers of ties to the White Army militia and forces aligned with Machar’s SPLM-IO, though the White Army has denied any military presence or responsibility for the raid. Stephano Wieu de Mialek, Ruweng’s chief administrator, specifically pointed to those links as part of the surge in violence in the area.
The spike in attacks has also hit Jonglei state. Doctors Without Borders (MSF) said 26 of its staff were unaccounted for after recent clashes. MSF reported that on 3 February its hospital in Lankien was struck in an airstrike it attributes to government forces and was later burned and looted; a health facility in Pieri was also looted. Because of the insecurity and loss of contact with staff, MSF has suspended operations in both locations.
The current wave of violence follows long-standing political and ethnic tensions. Kiir and Machar were prominent commanders in the Sudan People’s Liberation Army that won independence from Khartoum in 2011. In 2013 Kiir dismissed Machar and accused him of plotting a coup, setting off a civil war that left more than 400,000 dead and displaced nearly half the population, with much of the fighting along Dinka–Nuer lines.
A 2018 peace agreement created a unity government and returned Machar to the vice-presidency, but implementation faltered amid disputes over power sharing. Last September Machar was charged with murder, treason and other offenses linked to a deadly White Army attack on a government garrison in Nasir county; he was suspended by Kiir and is currently under house arrest while the case proceeds. Supporters call the prosecution political, and analysts warn the move risks unraveling the peace deal.
The prosecution and suspension have coincided with renewed gains by opposition forces and a government counteroffensive. Opposition fighters seized government outposts in Jonglei in December, and government forces launched operations in January. Humanitarian agencies estimate that fighting in Jonglei has displaced roughly 280,000 people over the past two months.
Analysts say actions against Machar appear to have helped unify disparate opposition factions around him as a symbolic leader. Daniel Akech of the International Crisis Group noted that, even detained or constrained, Machar remains an effective rallying point for groups that had previously splintered.
The UN human rights office has warned that the country faces a real risk of returning to large-scale conflict and urged immediate measures to preserve the peace agreement. Rising attacks, deliberate targeting of civilians, disruption of aid and mass displacement have deepened fears of a relapse into the widespread violence and humanitarian catastrophe that marked South Sudan’s earlier war. Additional reporting by the Associated Press.