South Sudan is reeling from escalating fighting between the government-aligned army and opposition forces and allied groups, a surge of violence that observers warn could return the world’s youngest country to full-scale civil war.
Clashes in recent weeks have pitted forces loyal to President Salva Kiir against insurgents believed to be allied with suspended vice-president Riek Machar. On Sunday, at least 169 people were killed when armed youth from Mayom county in the north raided a village in neighbouring Abiemnom county near the Sudan border, according to James Monyluak Majok, information minister for the Ruweng administrative area where Abiemnom is located. The victims included women, children and members of government security forces.
The UN mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) said it was sheltering more than 1,000 civilians at its base in the area and providing medical care; about 23 people were reported wounded. Stephano Wieu de Mialek, Ruweng’s chief administrator, accused attackers of links to the White Army, a militia that fought alongside Machar in the earlier civil war, together with forces affiliated with Machar’s party and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO). The White Army has denied responsibility and said it had no military presence in the area.
Violence has also surged in Jonglei state. Doctors Without Borders (MSF) said 26 of its staff were unaccounted for after recent fighting there. MSF reported that on 3 February its hospital in Lankien was hit in an airstrike by government forces and was later burned and looted, and that its health facility in Pieri was looted. MSF has suspended medical activities in Lankien and Pieri, saying it had “lost contact” with staff amid continuing insecurity.
The recent fighting follows a pattern rooted in the country’s post-independence politics. Kiir and Machar were both senior figures in the Sudan People’s Liberation Army that fought for independence from Sudan, achieved in 2011, with Kiir becoming president and Machar vice-president. In 2013 Kiir dismissed Machar and accused him of plotting a coup, triggering a civil war that killed more than 400,000 people and displaced nearly half the population. Much of the violence followed ethnic lines, between Kiir’s Dinka and Machar’s Nuer communities.
A 2018 peace deal brought Kiir and Machar into a unity government and returned Machar to the vice-presidency, but implementation stalled amid persistent power-sharing disputes. Last September Machar was charged with murder, treason and other offences over a deadly attack by the White Army on a government garrison in Nasir county; Kiir suspended him from office. Machar is under house arrest while his trial proceeds. His supporters say the charges are politically motivated, and analysts warn the prosecution could imperil the peace agreement.
Machar’s prosecution and suspension have inflamed tensions and coincided with the recent rise in violence, notably in Jonglei where opposition forces captured government outposts in December and the government launched a counteroffensive in January. Fighting in Jonglei has displaced an estimated 280,000 people over the past two months, according to humanitarian reports.
Daniel Akech, a senior analyst for South Sudan at the International Crisis Group, said the government’s actions against Machar have helped unify fragmented opposition groups. “Even if he’s detained or incommunicado or cannot issue orders, he has become very effective,” Akech said, with factions that once split from him now rallying around Machar as a symbolic unifying figure.
The UN’s high commissioner for human rights has warned of the danger of a full return to civil war and urged urgent action to preserve the peace agreement. “We are at a dangerous point, when rising violence is combined with deepening uncertainty over South Sudan’s political trajectory, as the peace agreement comes under severe strain,” Volker Türk told the UN human rights council.
The uptick in attacks, the targeting of civilians, disruption of humanitarian services and forced displacement have heightened fears that South Sudan could relapse into the widespread violence and humanitarian catastrophe that marked its earlier conflict. Additional reporting by the Associated Press.
