Countries across Africa are highly exposed to supply-chain shocks from the war in the Middle East because many farmers depend on imported fertiliser and large shares of household budgets go to food.
The conflict has seriously disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for oil, gas and large volumes of fertiliser produced in the Gulf. A UNCTAD report says 54% of Sudan’s fertiliser, and 30% and 26% of fertiliser for Somalia and Kenya respectively, are shipped via the strait. Around one-third of seaborne fertiliser trade transits that passage.
Much of the world’s fertiliser is manufactured in the Gulf, which benefits from cheap fossil gas used for nitrogen-based products such as urea and abundant sulphur for phosphate fertilisers. Since the war began last month, fertiliser prices have risen sharply. UNCTAD warns these increases could raise food costs and intensify cost-of-living pressures for the most vulnerable households; rising oil and gas prices would have a comparable effect.
UNCTAD also highlights structural vulnerabilities in many African economies: heavy dependence on foreign markets, volatile commodity exports, high debt levels and weak infrastructure mean major shocks amplify uncertainty and strain public budgets. Governments already under fiscal pressure are therefore particularly at risk when supply chains are disrupted.
Analysts say the effects will be widespread. Jervin Naidoo of Oxford Economics Africa noted that disruptions reverberate across economies. XN Iraki of the University of Nairobi said higher oil prices would be felt acutely, especially where informal work and uncertain incomes are common. Rama Yade of the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center warned that rising fuel costs create serious fiscal challenges; governments may increase subsidies or pass costs to consumers, actions that can generate social and political pressure.
Several African governments are taking pre-emptive steps. Kenya’s energy minister said the country has scheduled petroleum imports through the end of April and is taking measures to maintain uninterrupted supply. Tanzania’s president ordered the energy ministry to strengthen strategic fuel reserves. Ethiopia introduced a targeted fuel subsidy to shield consumers from surging global oil prices, while Zambia has warned fuel retailers against hoarding.
Experts caution that such measures can offer short-term relief but may not be sustainable if prices remain elevated. The continent experienced comparable shocks in 2022 when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended global supply chains.
There are mixed effects depending on a country’s role in energy markets. Higher crude prices could increase revenues for African oil exporters such as Nigeria, Algeria and Angola as some buyers seek alternative suppliers. But on the export side, the conflict is also disrupting African shipments to the Middle East and routes that pass through the region. Kenya’s agriculture minister, Mutahi Kagwe, said exports of meat, tea and other food products to Middle Eastern markets have already been interrupted.
Overall, analysts warn that the ripple effects from the Middle East war—through fertiliser shortages, higher energy costs and interrupted trade routes—risk raising food and fuel bills across Africa, compounding existing economic strains and heightening the possibility of social and political tension if costs are passed to consumers.