Andy Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election has intensified debate inside Labour about the party’s immediate future and Sir Keir Starmer’s position.
MPs from across Labour’s factions and ranks are telling the same story: they believe Starmer has entered an “endgame.” Many think Burnham’s route to 10 Downing Street is now inevitable, and the question is not whether Labour will change leader but how that change will be managed.
A growing number of colleagues use the word “coronation” to describe the likely leadership outcome. Their expectation is that Burnham will secure the backing threshold that would allow him to be declared leader without a full members’ ballot, as happened when Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair in 2007. Supporters of a rapid handover argue a prolonged contest would recreate the public impression of a party mired in infighting — the very perception voters punished the Conservatives for at the last general election.
Keir Starmer’s allies insist calls for his departure are misplaced. They argue Labour must avoid the spectacle of a governing party torn apart and that a smooth transition would be in the national interest.
But several practical and political complications remain. Former cabinet ministers and potential challengers, including Wes Streeting, have been making their claims public; Streeting says he believes he already has the 81 MP nominations required to trigger a ballot. He may, however, face pressure from colleagues to back Burnham to enable a swift handover.
Crucially, under Labour’s rules the incumbent leader is automatically included on the members’ ballot and does not need to meet the MP nomination threshold. That means there can be no guaranteed coronation so long as Starmer is willing to contest a formal leadership election.
Yet being prime minister is not the same as being leader of the Labour Party: the prime minister must retain the confidence of a parliamentary majority. Over the coming days the decisive question will be whether Starmer still commands enough support among MPs to remain at Number 10 while also standing in a members’ vote.
Starmer himself warned staff that a leadership contest would “tear apart our party and our movement.” If a contest is triggered, he will need to convince colleagues and the public that his decision to run is about principle and democratic legitimacy rather than personal survival.
In short: Labour faces a choice between a managed, rapid transition — preferred by many MPs — and a full, potentially bruising leadership contest. The balance of power in the parliamentary party and the decisions of key figures will determine which path the party takes next.
