The Met Office says the summer of 2026 is on track to be the warmest in UK records. Provisional figures for the meteorological summer to 10 August put the UK mean temperature at 16.48°C — about 1.88°C above the 1991–2020 average. That already tops last year’s summer mean of 16.10°C, and only average temperatures for the rest of August would be needed to beat the record set in 2025.
An unusually persistent run of high pressure has produced a string of heatwaves. A late‑spring spell set a new May record, which was followed by separate heatwaves in June and a prolonged two‑week episode in July. Across the country many locations have repeatedly exceeded local heatwave thresholds; the Met Office notes 37 consecutive days this year with heatwave conditions somewhere in the UK. The highest reading so far was 38.0°C at Lingwood, Norfolk, on 26 June. Forecasters say parts of England could see similarly extreme temperatures later in the week and have issued an amber extreme heat warning for some areas.
Longstanding records have been broken repeatedly. This is the first calendar year on record to reach 35°C or above in three different months (May, June and July), and a fourth month could be added if forecasts verify. July was the driest July on record for both England and Wales since records began in 1836, while parts of southern England experienced their driest calendar month ever. By mid‑July the UK had already recorded more days above 30°C than in the notorious heatwave year of 1976.
The dry, hot conditions have led to a formal drought being declared across more than two‑thirds of England and all of Wales. Around 45 million people now live in areas designated as in drought in England, and more than 27 million face some form of water‑use restriction. Little rain is expected for much of the coming week, though forecast models show Atlantic low pressure could bring rain fronts into Wales and southern England by Sunday — potentially the first meaningful rainfall for many places in nearly two months. At present that rain is not expected to be heavy or prolonged.
Meteorologists say the pattern this summer — persistent high pressure with prolonged dry, sunny conditions — is the kind of behaviour scientists have warned would become more common as the climate warms. Rising global temperatures, driven mainly by the burning of fossil fuels, make extreme heat more likely and more intense. While there will always be year‑to‑year variability, experts warn that average summer temperatures are expected to continue rising, so future heatwaves are likely to push to even higher extremes than those seen in the past.
Additional reporting by Becky Dale.
