Democracy is increasingly threatened by the climate crisis, with new analysis showing elections are being shaped not only by politics but also by floods, wildfires and extreme weather.
Researchers found that at least 94 elections and referendums across 52 countries were disrupted by climate-related impacts over the past two decades. As climate risks grow, pressure on already fragile democratic systems—particularly in Africa and Asia—is expected to increase.
The findings, from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (an intergovernmental organisation supporting democracy), are the first global analysis of how natural hazards affect elections. In 2024 alone, climate hazards disrupted 23 elections in 18 countries, including Brazil, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Senegal, by damaging infrastructure, displacing voters or forcing last-minute changes to electoral processes.
Sarah Birch, a professor of politics at King’s College London and co-author of the report, said elections should be timed to avoid predictable climate threats, noting that even the US still plans elections in November during hurricane season. “Elections should be held when disasters are least likely,” she said. “In some cases, electoral management bodies will also need to consider alterations to election timelines to reduce the likelihood of disruption by short-lived disasters.”
The report documents more than 100 climate-related crises affecting elections. In Mozambique’s 2019 election, Cyclone Idai submerged houses, schools, power lines and roads and forced large-scale displacement—events the report says “affected the results of the presidential election and the distribution of legislative and provincial seats.” In Senegal’s November 2024 parliamentary election, flooding required firefighters to help bring election observers to polling stations.
Heatwaves are a recurring problem: at least 10 elections since 2022 were affected by extreme heat. In the Philippines’ 2025 general election, intense heat caused some vote-counting machines to overheat and reject previously accepted ballots. Heat is a particular threat in megacities: Lagos now records the most days per year (89) with temperatures significantly above pre-climate-change levels.
To mitigate impacts, the report recommends that election organisers coordinate with meteorological services, environmental agencies and disaster relief and humanitarian organisations. Examples of adaptation include Peru, where election staff have been trained in disaster risk management to respond to voting-day disruptions, and Alberta in Canada, which will move its provincial election from May to October to avoid wildfire season.
Ferran Martínez i Coma, a professor of government at Griffith University, said: “As natural hazards increase, training and contingency planning is more important than ever. Preparation is key to the integrity and resilience of the elections.”
