Signs have increased that Sir Keir Starmer could announce a plan to stand down, possibly as early as Monday, after a rapid shift in the mood inside government over the past 48 hours. Until now he has insisted he will not resign and would fight any leadership challenge, but several insiders say the prime minister is reflecting on the political realities and may set a timetable to go.
Business Secretary Peter Kyle told the BBC he could see things moving quickly and that Sir Keir would act “in the best interests of the country,” a reflection, his allies say, of mounting pressure and growing doubts about his leadership.
Many Labour MPs argue the problem is not the party’s platform but the man at the top: they believe Sir Keir is personally unpopular and is holding the party back. The decisive result in the Makerfield by-election — Andy Burnham’s comfortable win over Reform — has crystallised those concerns. For MPs worried about how to compete with Nigel Farage’s party, Burnham’s victory offers a high-profile example of someone who has beaten Reform at the ballot box.
Dozens of MPs had already privately urged Sir Keir to quit; that list has grown since Thursday and now includes senior cabinet figures. Reports that ministers such as Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander have told the prime minister he should go, while remaining in post, are being read as a sign of his diminished authority.
With Burnham emerging as the clear favourite to replace Sir Keir, attention has turned to whether a leadership contest would even be contested. Former health secretary Wes Streeting has said he would stand, but his supporters indicate there may be talks between potential candidates about agreeing a path forward. Any rival would need to secure the backing of 81 MPs to get onto a ballot, and there is not much time for challengers to marshal support.
Timing is contested within Labour. Some of Burnham’s backers want him installed around the party conference in late September so he can prepare for government and present a fresh start. Others argue that a three-month interregnum would paralyse government and generate damaging speculation, and prefer a much quicker handover. Those differences reflect wider concerns about managing an orderly transition without destabilising day-to-day governance.
A key early decision for any new leader would be appointing a chancellor. In recent days that debate has focused on Ed Miliband and Shabana Mahmood, although Mahmood is now thought likely to remain at the Home Office if Burnham becomes prime minister. The prospect of Miliband as chancellor alarms figures on Labour’s right, who warn his appointment would signal a leftward shift and risk alienating about 100 MPs, according to one minister. Trade union leaders have already publicly urged caution over such an appointment.
Burnham and his allies have kept a low profile, reportedly to give Sir Keir time to reflect on Makerfield and decide his next step. But with senior figures increasingly convinced change is needed, the coming days could produce a rapid and consequential chain of events for the Labour Party and the government.
