A new preprint analysis estimates that injectable forms of semaglutide—the active drug in weight-loss injections like Wegovy and the diabetes treatment Ozempic—could be manufactured for about $3 a month, while newer oral versions might be produced for roughly $16 monthly. If realised, such low production costs could expand access in lower-income countries as patents expire.
More than a billion people worldwide live with obesity, and rates are rising fast in low- and middle-income countries as diets change and lifestyles become more sedentary. The World Health Organization added semaglutide to its essential medicines list in September, but global health leaders have warned that high prices restrict access.
The study, led by researchers including Dr Andrew Hill of the University of Liverpool, used 2024–25 shipment records for key ingredients and a costing method previously applied to forecast generic prices for HIV, hepatitis C and some cancer medicines. The authors calculate an injectable monthly dose could be produced for about $3 (around £2.35), and an oral formulation for about $16. Hill said these low prices could open the door to worldwide access to an essential medicine.
The analysis also mapped patent coverage. It found that core semaglutide patents are due to expire this year in 10 countries—including Brazil, China, India, South Africa, Turkey, Mexico and Canada from 21 March—potentially allowing generic competition. The researchers identified roughly 150 countries, mostly across Africa, where those patents were never filed. Together these roughly 160 countries account for about 69% of people with type 2 diabetes and 84% of people living with obesity.
Prof François Venter of the University of the Witwatersrand, a co-author, pointed to precedents in which generic competition drove down prices for HIV, TB, malaria and hepatitis treatments, saving millions of lives while still supporting sustainable profits for manufacturers. “We can repeat this medical success story for semaglutide,” he said.
The authors and outside experts cautioned, however, that cheaper medicines alone will not solve the structural drivers of obesity—such as food insecurity, poverty, urbanisation and commercial food environments. They called for coordinated policies and procurement planning to ensure benefits reach those in need.
Dr Nomathemba Chandiwana, chief scientific officer at South Africa’s Desmond Tutu Health Foundation and an obesity specialist not involved in the study, said lower prices could be highly significant for South Africa and many other low- and middle-income countries where cost has been a major barrier. She noted analyses suggesting about 27% of adults worldwide meet criteria for drugs like semaglutide, with most of those people living in countries where access is currently limited. Chandiwana added that integrating these medicines responsibly into wider obesity and diabetes care will be a key challenge.
Obesity raises the risk of heart disease, diabetes, stroke and some cancers; the WHO attributes about 3.7 million deaths each year to excess weight. Diabetes prevalence has also climbed sharply, from roughly 200 million people in 1990 to an estimated 830 million in 2022, with the steepest increases in low- and middle-income countries.
Semaglutide was first approved in 2017. It presently costs roughly $200 a month in the US and about £120 a month in the UK; patents in Britain, continental Europe and the US are not due to expire for another five years. The study’s findings echo a 2024 analysis from Médecins Sans Frontières that likewise concluded diabetes drugs including semaglutide could be produced and sold at much lower prices.