The United States is preparing to impose a broader package of sanctions as efforts to halt the fighting in Sudan falter. US envoy Massad Boulos—who is married into President Trump’s family—has so far failed to secure a sustained ceasefire between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
President Trump said last week he had begun work to end the conflict after a direct appeal from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. At a recent White House cabinet meeting, Senator Marco Rubio praised Trump’s role, describing him as uniquely capable of moving the process forward. An Arab diplomat told reporters that the US president’s involvement can create momentum for peace, but that how others act on that momentum will determine outcomes. US officials have warned the warring parties that a failure to curb the fighting would likely prompt a wider set of punitive measures against those seen as blocking a truce.
The humanitarian toll has been severe. The United Nations estimates roughly 40,000 people have been killed and more than 14 million displaced, making the crisis one of the world’s gravest. Norway is preparing to convene a broad spectrum of Sudanese civic actors in Oslo to plan how a transition back to civilian rule might be organized if hostilities end. Norway’s deputy foreign minister, Andreas Motzfeldt Kravik, recently met army leaders in Port Sudan and warned that, without a ceasefire, Sudan could fragment with serious regional consequences.
Regional backers have shaped the fight: Saudi Arabia and Egypt have largely supported the army, while the RSF has received backing from the United Arab Emirates. US leverage may depend on quietly persuading the UAE to change course and on securing Saudi concessions to protect Sudan’s existing institutions—a diplomatic shorthand for safeguarding the army’s institutional role.
Human-rights monitors report continuing atrocities. The UN human rights chief said that since 25 October, when the RSF took the town of Bara in North Kordofan, at least 269 civilians have been killed in aerial strikes, artillery attacks and summary executions. In response to the Saudi crown prince’s intervention, Washington is expected to press for tougher sanctions and to push for stricter enforcement and expansion of the UN arms embargo on Darfur. To date, US measures have focused mainly on key RSF and army figures, a small number of Islamist actors linked to the army, and some UAE-based companies.
Diplomatically, the ‘‘quad’’—the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt—offered a three-month humanitarian truce followed by a nine-month political process intended to restore civilian rule. The RSF signaled agreement but continued combat operations; the army rejected the roadmap as biased and accused the quad of seeking the army’s disbandment, provoking frustration from the US envoy.
US attention has also been sharpened by reports the army may be considering an extended port lease to Russia and by allegations that authorities blocked UN investigators probing possible chemical-weapons use. Separately, the Trump administration’s threat to designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a foreign terrorist organization—backed by the House Foreign Affairs Committee—could weaken groups seen as linked to the army.
The UAE has argued publicly that removing Islamist political influence is a priority for regional stability. At Chatham House, UAE minister of state Lana Nusseibeh maintained that neither the RSF nor the army should be politically rehabilitated, calling both parties complicit in grave violations and unfit to determine Sudan’s future.
UN human-rights chief Volker Türk warned that escalating fighting in Kordofan risks a new wave of atrocities and urged all states with influence to act immediately to halt the violence and the arms flows that fuel it.