Violent protests erupted in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania’s largest city, on election day as voters went to the polls. Videos circulating on social media showed demonstrators throwing stones at police and a petrol station alight, while the internet was disrupted nationwide, the monitor NetBlocks reported, saying live data pointed to a broad outage that matched accounts of a digital blackout.
President Samia Suluhu Hassan is widely expected to consolidate her hold on power in the vote, set against a backdrop of a shrinking political space, the exclusion of leading opponents and reports of abductions and arrests of government critics. Hassan, who became president after the death of John Magufuli in 2021, began her term by reversing some of Magufuli’s harsher policies — lifting bans on rallies and making conciliatory gestures toward the opposition — measures that won her local and international praise. But many observers say her administration later reverted to more repressive tactics, dashing hopes that the country had moved away from heavy-handed governance.
Opposition leaders from the two main opposition parties were disqualified from standing, and analysts say many critics have been intimidated, disappeared, detained or killed. That environment has fuelled voter apathy and raised the risk of unrest as disaffected citizens respond to what they see as a closed electoral contest. “Tanzania will never be the same after this election,” said Deus Valentine, chief executive of the Center for Strategic Litigation in Tanzania. “We are either entering a completely new paradigm or level of impunity, or we are entering a completely new level of civil defiance. Something is going to give.”
Human rights concerns have intensified in recent months. In June, after the reported disappearance and torture of two activists — Kenya’s Boniface Mwangi and Uganda’s Agather Atuhaire — UN experts urged the Tanzanian government to halt enforced disappearances of political opponents, journalists and human rights defenders. The UN experts said more than 200 cases of enforced disappearance had been recorded in Tanzania since 2019.
A wave of abductions ahead of the election has increased public anger. Among those reported taken was Humphrey Polepole, a former CCM insider and ex-ambassador to Cuba who had become an outspoken critic; his family says he was abducted by unknown persons. Police have dismissed some claims of disappearances as staged and said investigations have been opened in certain cases, but results have not been published.
Crackdowns on opposition parties have intensified. Tundu Lissu, vice-chair of Chadema, was arrested in April and charged with treason and cybercrime-related offences; Chadema later withdrew from the contest and was disqualified from the ballot. Luhaga Mpina, leader of ACT-Wazalendo, was also disqualified, leaving Hassan to face challengers from smaller, lesser-known parties.
Researchers and election observers describe a sharply polarised political landscape in which opposition leaders face legal harassment and civic space is constrained. Nicodemus Minde of the Institute for Security Studies said at a seminar that the absence of Chadema and ACT-Wazalendo made this election “arguably the least competitive” since multiparty politics were reintroduced in 1992.
The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) and its predecessor have governed Tanzania since independence in 1961, making it one of Africa’s longest-ruling political movements. Hassan’s government points to recent economic indicators — steady growth and low inflation — and her campaign has emphasised promises to improve healthcare, education and economic empowerment. Speaking in Temeke district during the campaign, she said her manifesto would focus on people and ensure every Tanzanian could participate meaningfully in the country’s economic life.
Among the candidates permitted to run is Salum Mwalimu, formerly a running mate of Lissu, who is contesting under the Chaumma party, which includes many former Chadema members. Mwalimu has pledged government reforms, including advocating for a new constitution. Still, observers say his and other rivals’ lack of resources and national recognition leave them ill-equipped to challenge the extensive party machinery CCM has built over decades.
The 2020 election saw Magufuli win with about 84.4% of the vote, with Lissu in second on roughly 13%. This year, more than 37 million Tanzanians are eligible to vote in a ballot that includes the presidency, parliamentary seats and local offices. With major opposition parties sidelined and reports of intimidation and disappearances mounting, analysts warn the poll could further entrench CCM’s dominance or provoke heightened civic resistance if frustrations continue to boil over.