Two major obstacles to Andy Burnham returning to Parliament have been removed, but the toughest test remains: can he win the Makerfield seat?
A sitting Labour MP has agreed to stand down, creating a vacancy for Greater Manchester’s mayor to contest. That contrasts with an earlier occasion when Labour’s leadership used its control of the party apparatus to prevent Burnham from standing. This time, Downing Street has signalled it will not try to block his candidacy. With a recent wave of high-profile calls for the prime minister to quit, Sir Keir Starmer’s capacity to unilaterally bar Burnham was reduced.
Even so, electoral danger looms. At the last general election Reform UK finished second in Makerfield with roughly a third of the vote. But in the most recent local polls, Reform swept all 11 wards in and around the constituency and captured about half the ballots cast, a dramatic surge that underscores how intensely contested any by-election there will be. Nigel Farage has already pledged his party will make the race a major target.
Inside Labour there are signs of a temporary truce. The outgoing MP who made way for Burnham, Josh Simons, is not from Burnham’s political camp: he is a close ally of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and previously ran the think tank Labour Together, which is associated with the party’s right. That someone outside Burnham’s faction stepped aside is being read as a unifying gesture.
Supporters are quick to promote Burnham as a unity candidate and hope his candidacy will accelerate moves to clarify the leadership timetable at Westminster. Senior figures across the party’s wings have privately indicated they would back Burnham for leader if he wins the by-election. Several ministers and MPs, including Labour deputy leader Lucy Powell, have publicly or privately expressed explicit support, arguing the party should move beyond factionalism and bring different traditions together.
Not everyone is convinced. Prominent voices on the party’s right warn that manoeuvring around a by-election risks political instability and could precipitate a general election. Other critics call the arrangement improper and worry about concentrating party politics around individuals rather than collective strategy.
Short-term, the manoeuvre is likely to sharpen tensions inside government and could slow decision-making as attention shifts to the contest. Sir Keir has so far insisted he will not step down immediately and has told allies he would contest any leadership challenge.
The by-election itself will be a bruising affair. Strategists expect Reform to run a hard-hitting campaign aimed at capitalising on its recent momentum, while Burnham’s team faces two main strategic options. One is to position his candidacy explicitly as the means to trigger leadership change at the top of Labour and offer an alternative to the current direction. The other, if Starmer sets a clear departure timetable, would be for Burnham to run a more conventional case against the government’s record and present a bolder, refreshed platform to win back voters who have drifted to Reform.
For Burnham personally, the stakes are high. He has twice stood for the Labour leadership before; a by-election defeat would likely end his long-held ambitions for national office. A win would be a powerful proof point that he can reclaim voters from Reform and reverse some of Labour’s recent electoral erosion — potentially positioning him to succeed the party leadership and aim for Number 10.
The immediacy of the challenge, the fierceness of Reform’s advance in Makerfield, and the wider implications for Labour’s unity and leadership make the coming contest one of the most consequential political tests in months.