Hospital admissions for influenza in England have jumped by more than 50% in a week, and NHS leaders say there is no sign the current wave has peaked.
NHS England reported an average of about 2,660 flu patients a day in hospital in the week to Sunday, with numbers continuing to climb this week. The health service said that is the equivalent of roughly three full hospitals of flu patients, with some trusts seeing nearly one in ten beds occupied by someone with the virus. Officials warned caseloads could exceed 5,000 by the weekend.
Rises are being recorded across the UK. Scotland saw almost a 25% rise in confirmed cases in the last week and a 15% increase in flu admissions. Wales and Northern Ireland are reporting similar trends, and children and young people have been particularly affected. Some schools have reintroduced Covid-style measures: a site in Caerphilly was temporarily closed, and several schools in Aberdeenshire shortened their hours. In England, children aged 5 to 14 have the highest positivity rates, while hospital admission rates are highest among people over 75 and children under five.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting warned the NHS faces an extraordinary challenge this winter, saying admissions ‘could triple by the peak of the pressures’ and that the timing of any peak remains uncertain. NHS England’s medical director, Professor Meghana Pandit, said the unprecedented wave is stretching staff to their limits.
Current hospital flu levels are the highest for this time of year since records began in 2021, although those records do not cover earlier severe seasons such as 2014–15 and 2017–18. This season’s rise started about a month earlier than usual and is being driven by a genetically changed H3N2 strain. Public health experts say population immunity may be reduced because fewer people are likely to have encountered this specific version of the virus before.
NHS England also reported an increase in norovirus infections, with more than 350 beds currently occupied by people with the stomach bug.
The surge in winter viruses comes as junior doctors planned a five-day strike next week. The British Medical Association has agreed to poll members after a fresh offer from the health secretary, with results due on Monday. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer urged the BMA to accept the offer and call off strike action, noting the heightened pressures ahead of Christmas. Daniel Elkeles of NHS Providers appealed for doctors to stand aside from industrial action to help hospitals cope.
UK Health Security Agency data, which include community infection levels as well as hospital cases, show infections continuing to rise but with a smaller week-on-week increase than previously. Officials cautioned it is too soon to assume the wave is peaking, warning that flu can be unpredictable and may pause and then surge again.
Public health experts urged everyone eligible to get the free NHS flu vaccine. The free jab is available to people aged 65 and over, pregnant women and those with certain long-term health conditions, among others. Dr Conall Watson of the UKHSA said vaccine supply remains available but it takes up to two weeks after vaccination to reach full protection, so time for protection before Christmas is limited.
Dr Vicky Price, president of the Society for Acute Medicine, warned that winter viruses are piling intense pressure on an ‘already buckling system.’ She said long waits in A&E are increasing as staff cope with overflowing departments and argued the current crisis reflects long-term workforce shortages and capacity problems rather than an isolated emergency.
