New analysis suggests semaglutide — the active ingredient in obesity and diabetes drugs sold as Wegovy and Ozempic — could be manufactured for as little as $3 a month in its injectable form, potentially widening access in poorer countries as patents lapse.
More than a billion people worldwide live with obesity, with rates increasing quickly in lower-income nations as diets westernise and lifestyles become more sedentary. The World Health Organization added semaglutide to its list of essential medicines in September, but global health leaders warned that high prices were restricting access.
The new pre-print study, using 2024–25 shipment records of key ingredients and a costing method previously successful in predicting generic prices for HIV, hepatitis C and some cancer drugs, estimates a monthly injectable price of about $3 and around $16 a month for newer oral formulations. One study author, Dr Andrew Hill of the University of Liverpool, said those low prices “open the door to worldwide access to an essential medicine.”
The researchers found core semaglutide patents are due to expire this year in 10 countries — including Brazil, China, India, South Africa, Turkey, Mexico and Canada — from 21 March, a move that could allow generic competition. They also identified roughly 150 countries where patents were never filed, bringing the total to about 160 countries that would be free of patent restrictions. Those nations account for about 69% of people with type 2 diabetes and 84% of those with obesity.
Prof François Venter of the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, a co-author, said the rollout of low-cost semaglutide could mirror past successes where generics made HIV, TB, malaria and hepatitis medicines affordable in low- and middle-income countries, saving millions of lives while ensuring sustainable supply for manufacturers.
The authors caution that cheaper drugs alone will not solve the root causes of obesity — such as food insecurity, poverty, urbanisation and unhealthy commercial food environments — and that coordinated policies and procurement planning are required to realise public health benefits. Dr Nomathemba Chandiwana of South Africa’s Desmond Tutu Health Foundation, not involved in the study, said the findings could be “very significant” for South Africa, many African countries and other low- and middle-income countries where cost has been a major barrier. She noted that about 27% of adults worldwide meet criteria for semaglutide-type drugs, many of whom live in countries with limited access.
Obesity contributes to heart disease, diabetes, stroke and cancer, and is linked to some 3.7 million deaths annually. Diabetes prevalence has surged, from around 200 million people in 1990 to an estimated 830 million in 2022, with the steepest increases in low- and middle-income countries.
Semaglutide was first approved in 2017. Current retail prices are much higher than the study’s production estimates: roughly $200 a month in the US and about £120 a month in the UK. Patents in the UK, continental Europe and the US remain in force for about five more years.
The study’s methodology and findings follow similar analyses, including a 2024 report by Médecins Sans Frontières, which concluded diabetes drugs such as semaglutide could be produced and sold far more cheaply than current market prices. The authors urge policymakers and health systems to plan how to integrate such medicines responsibly into broader obesity and diabetes care if low-cost generics become available.