A new pre-print analysis finds that semaglutide—the active ingredient in obesity and diabetes drugs sold as Wegovy and Ozempic—could be manufactured for as little as $3 a month in injectable form and about $16 a month for newer oral formulations. The estimate, based on 2024–25 shipment records of key ingredients and a costing method previously used to predict generic prices for HIV, hepatitis C and some cancer drugs, suggests much lower prices could be possible as patents lapse.
More than a billion people worldwide live with obesity, and rates are rising rapidly in lower-income countries as diets and lifestyles change. The World Health Organization added semaglutide to its list of essential medicines in September, but global health leaders have warned that current high prices are limiting access.
Study co-author Dr Andrew Hill of the University of Liverpool said those low-cost estimates “open the door to worldwide access to an essential medicine.” The researchers report that core semaglutide patents are due to expire this year in 10 countries—including Brazil, China, India, South Africa, Turkey, Mexico and Canada—from 21 March, potentially allowing generic competition. They also identified roughly 150 countries where patents were never filed, bringing the total to about 160 countries free of patent restrictions. Those nations account for about 69% of people with type 2 diabetes and 84% of people with obesity.
Prof François Venter of the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, a co-author, said a low-cost rollout could mirror past successes where generics made HIV, TB, malaria and hepatitis medicines affordable in low- and middle-income countries, saving lives and ensuring sustainable supply for manufacturers. External expert Dr Nomathemba Chandiwana of South Africa’s Desmond Tutu Health Foundation called the findings potentially very significant for South Africa, many African countries and other low- and middle-income nations where cost has been a major barrier. She noted around 27% of adults worldwide meet criteria for semaglutide-type drugs, many living in countries with limited access.
The authors caution that cheaper drugs alone will not address the root causes of obesity—such as food insecurity, poverty, urbanisation and unhealthy commercial food environments—and stress that coordinated policies and procurement planning are required to realize public health benefits. Semaglutide was first approved in 2017; current retail prices are much higher than the production estimates (roughly $200 a month in the US and about £120 a month in the UK), and patents in the UK, continental Europe and the US remain in force for about five more years. The report urges policymakers and health systems to plan now for responsible integration of low-cost generics into broader obesity and diabetes care.